First Round · 2009-10
6 games · Phoenix Suns advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 18
POR 105@
PHX 10025·19·26·35 / 24·19·29·2825%Game 2Apr 20POR 90@PHX 11926·23·19·22 / 32·31·31·2572%Game 3Apr 22PHX 108@POR 8934·32·15·27 / 16·21·23·2943%Game 4Apr 24PHX 87@POR 9627·23·22·15 / 26·28·20·2251%Game 5Apr 26POR 88@PHX 10728·19·19·22 / 27·30·27·2376%Game 6Apr 29PHX 99@POR 9024·29·21·25 / 17·24·24·2548%
POR 105@PHX 10025·19·26·35 / 24·19·29·2825%Game 2Apr 20POR 90@PHX 11926·23·19·22 / 32·31·31·2572%Game 3Apr 22PHX 108@POR 8934·32·15·27 / 16·21·23·2943%Game 4Apr 24PHX 87@POR 9627·23·22·15 / 26·28·20·2251%Game 5Apr 26POR 88@PHX 10728·19·19·22 / 27·30·27·2376%Game 6Apr 29PHX 99@POR 9024·29·21·25 / 17·24·24·2548%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
3 of 6
Mean probability on the winner
52.4%
Brier over the series
0.2566
A backtest, and a sample of 6. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.