Conference Semifinals · 2009-10
4 games · Phoenix Suns advanced
Every game
Game 1May 3
SA 102@
PHX 11122·25·28·27 / 31·26·28·2674%Game 2May 5SA 102@PHX 11030·21·25·26 / 21·30·27·3275%Game 3May 7PHX 110@SA 9619·25·27·39 / 28·22·22·2442%Game 4May 9PHX 107@SA 10119·31·22·35 / 25·22·24·3047%
SA 102@PHX 11122·25·28·27 / 31·26·28·2674%Game 2May 5SA 102@PHX 11030·21·25·26 / 21·30·27·3275%Game 3May 7PHX 110@SA 9619·25·27·39 / 28·22·22·2442%Game 4May 9PHX 107@SA 10119·31·22·35 / 25·22·24·3047%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
2 of 4
Mean probability on the winner
59.5%
Brier over the series
0.1863
A backtest, and a sample of 4. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.