First Round · 2009-10
6 games · San Antonio Spurs advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 18
SA 94@
DAL 10018·27·24·25 / 23·27·26·2463%Game 2Apr 21SA 102@DAL 8824·34·24·20 / 20·26·26·1634%Game 3Apr 23DAL 90@SA 9416·28·26·20 / 23·24·19·2874%Game 4Apr 25DAL 89@SA 9217·31·11·30 / 20·17·29·2673%Game 5Apr 27SA 81@DAL 10321·25·18·17 / 27·26·29·2158%Game 6Apr 29DAL 87@SA 978·26·29·24 / 22·25·23·2769%
SA 94@DAL 10018·27·24·25 / 23·27·26·2463%Game 2Apr 21SA 102@DAL 8824·34·24·20 / 20·26·26·1634%Game 3Apr 23DAL 90@SA 9416·28·26·20 / 23·24·19·2874%Game 4Apr 25DAL 89@SA 9217·31·11·30 / 20·17·29·2673%Game 5Apr 27SA 81@DAL 10321·25·18·17 / 27·26·29·2158%Game 6Apr 29DAL 87@SA 978·26·29·24 / 22·25·23·2769%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
5 of 6
Mean probability on the winner
61.9%
Brier over the series
0.1634
A backtest, and a sample of 6. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.