DEN v UTAH · First Round · Hardwood

First Round · 2009-10

2

final

4

6 games · Utah Jazz advanced

Every game

DEN 12628·28·30·27 / 30·27·31·3866%Game 2Apr 19

DEN 11133·30·25·26 / 30·21·31·2933%Game 3Apr 23

UTAH 10527·21·20·25 / 21·31·32·2168%Game 4Apr 25

UTAH 11725·20·23·38 / 31·23·32·3170%Game 5Apr 28

DEN 11627·25·29·21 / 25·25·36·3062%Game 6Apr 30

UTAH 11223·31·26·24 / 32·24·27·2968%

Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.

What the model made of it

Games it favoured correctly

5 of 6

Mean probability on the winner

61.0%

Brier over the series

0.1688

A backtest, and a sample of 6. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.