CLE v CHI · First Round · Hardwood

First Round · 2009-10

Cleveland Cavaliers

4

final

1

5 games · Cleveland Cavaliers advanced

Every game

CLE 9618·23·19·23 / 32·24·17·2383%Game 2Apr 19

CLE 11222·28·27·25 / 28·24·25·3584%Game 3Apr 22

CHI 10821·24·23·38 / 32·24·23·2943%Game 4Apr 25

CHI 9824·38·37·22 / 21·31·24·2256%Game 5Apr 27

CLE 9626·22·23·23 / 27·28·18·2386%

Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.

What the model made of it

Games it favoured correctly

4 of 5

Mean probability on the winner

70.1%

Brier over the series

0.1206

A backtest, and a sample of 5. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.