CHI v IND · First Round · Hardwood

First Round · 2010-11

4

final

1

5 games · Chicago Bulls advanced

Every game

CHI 10427·28·24·20 / 23·28·20·3388%Game 2Apr 18

CHI 9618·29·20·23 / 17·27·23·2989%Game 3Apr 21

IND 8421·21·23·23 / 17·25·22·2065%Game 4Apr 23

IND 8919·14·23·28 / 23·26·18·2234%Game 5Apr 26

CHI 11625·21·19·24 / 36·18·30·3287%

Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.

What the model made of it

Games it favoured correctly

4 of 5

Mean probability on the winner

72.6%

Brier over the series

0.1201

A backtest, and a sample of 5. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.