First Round · 2010-11
6 games · Los Angeles Lakers advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 17
NO 109@
LAL 10026·29·18·36 / 24·23·25·2820%Game 2Apr 20NO 78@LAL 8723·18·15·22 / 23·24·16·2478%Game 3Apr 22LAL 100@NO 8630·21·24·25 / 23·19·26·1851%Game 4Apr 24LAL 88@NO 9325·20·22·21 / 22·27·20·2446%Game 5Apr 26NO 90@LAL 10632·19·21·18 / 23·31·25·2777%Game 6Apr 28LAL 98@NO 8018·22·29·29 / 16·18·23·2355%
NO 109@LAL 10026·29·18·36 / 24·23·25·2820%Game 2Apr 20NO 78@LAL 8723·18·15·22 / 23·24·16·2478%Game 3Apr 22LAL 100@NO 8630·21·24·25 / 23·19·26·1851%Game 4Apr 24LAL 88@NO 9325·20·22·21 / 22·27·20·2446%Game 5Apr 26NO 90@LAL 10632·19·21·18 / 23·31·25·2777%Game 6Apr 28LAL 98@NO 8018·22·29·29 / 16·18·23·2355%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
4 of 6
Mean probability on the winner
54.3%
Brier over the series
0.2478
A backtest, and a sample of 6. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.