Conference Semifinals · 2010-11
4 games · Dallas Mavericks advanced
Every game
Game 1May 2
DAL 96@
LAL 9425·19·27·25 / 23·30·25·1634%Game 2May 4DAL 93@LAL 8126·25·17·25 / 20·29·13·1936%Game 3May 6LAL 92@DAL 9827·24·21·20 / 29·18·19·3270%Game 4May 8LAL 86@DAL 12223·16·23·24 / 27·36·23·3670%
DAL 96@LAL 9425·19·27·25 / 23·30·25·1634%Game 2May 4DAL 93@LAL 8126·25·17·25 / 20·29·13·1936%Game 3May 6LAL 92@DAL 9827·24·21·20 / 29·18·19·3270%Game 4May 8LAL 86@DAL 12223·16·23·24 / 27·36·23·3670%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
2 of 4
Mean probability on the winner
52.7%
Brier over the series
0.2550
A backtest, and a sample of 4. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.