First Round · 2010-11
4 games · Boston Celtics advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 17
NY 85@
BOS 8723·28·13·21 / 24·15·20·2876%Game 2Apr 19NY 93@BOS 9621·24·22·26 / 23·21·30·2276%Game 3Apr 22BOS 113@NY 9627·25·34·27 / 20·24·19·3346%Game 4Apr 24BOS 101@NY 8929·26·27·19 / 23·15·34·1751%
NY 85@BOS 8723·28·13·21 / 24·15·20·2876%Game 2Apr 19NY 93@BOS 9621·24·22·26 / 23·21·30·2276%Game 3Apr 22BOS 113@NY 9627·25·34·27 / 20·24·19·3346%Game 4Apr 24BOS 101@NY 8929·26·27·19 / 23·15·34·1751%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
3 of 4
Mean probability on the winner
62.2%
Brier over the series
0.1630
A backtest, and a sample of 4. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.