ORL v ATL · First Round · Hardwood

First Round · 2010-11

2

final

4

6 games · Atlanta Hawks advanced

Every game

ORL 9317·38·30·18 / 19·29·23·2215%Game 2Apr 19

ORL 8822·20·12·28 / 16·32·17·2382%Game 3Apr 22

ATL 8825·17·20·22 / 25·26·15·2242%Game 4Apr 24

ATL 8817·20·24·24 / 25·21·20·2245%Game 5Apr 26

ORL 10113·22·18·23 / 26·32·21·2279%Game 6Apr 28

ATL 8418·18·19·26 / 23·19·20·2242%

Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.

What the model made of it

Games it favoured correctly

2 of 6

Mean probability on the winner

50.8%

Brier over the series

0.2949

A backtest, and a sample of 6. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.