First Round · 2010-11
6 games · Dallas Mavericks advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 16
POR 81@
DAL 8922·15·20·24 / 21·26·14·2874%Game 2Apr 19POR 89@DAL 10124·28·20·17 / 22·28·23·2875%Game 3Apr 21DAL 92@POR 9723·29·20·20 / 28·26·21·2252%Game 4Apr 23DAL 82@POR 8416·21·30·15 / 11·24·14·3553%Game 5Apr 25POR 82@DAL 9320·23·20·19 / 15·29·31·1873%Game 6Apr 28DAL 103@POR 9619·33·23·28 / 27·16·19·3448%
POR 81@DAL 8922·15·20·24 / 21·26·14·2874%Game 2Apr 19POR 89@DAL 10124·28·20·17 / 22·28·23·2875%Game 3Apr 21DAL 92@POR 9723·29·20·20 / 28·26·21·2252%Game 4Apr 23DAL 82@POR 8416·21·30·15 / 11·24·14·3553%Game 5Apr 25POR 82@DAL 9320·23·20·19 / 15·29·31·1873%Game 6Apr 28DAL 103@POR 9619·33·23·28 / 27·16·19·3448%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
5 of 6
Mean probability on the winner
62.6%
Brier over the series
0.1532
A backtest, and a sample of 6. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.