First Round · 2010-11
6 games · Memphis Grizzlies advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 17
MEM 101@
SA 9827·18·25·31 / 22·21·31·2431%Game 2Apr 20MEM 87@SA 9317·27·21·22 / 17·24·25·2768%Game 3Apr 23SA 88@MEM 9120·22·24·22 / 29·23·19·2063%Game 4Apr 25SA 86@MEM 10426·24·15·21 / 21·27·30·2663%Game 5Apr 27MEM 103@SA 110OT14·28·26·29 / 20·30·15·3265%Game 6Apr 29SA 91@MEM 9916·27·23·25 / 24·22·24·2963%
MEM 101@SA 9827·18·25·31 / 22·21·31·2431%Game 2Apr 20MEM 87@SA 9317·27·21·22 / 17·24·25·2768%Game 3Apr 23SA 88@MEM 9120·22·24·22 / 29·23·19·2063%Game 4Apr 25SA 86@MEM 10426·24·15·21 / 21·27·30·2663%Game 5Apr 27MEM 103@SA 110OT14·28·26·29 / 20·30·15·3265%Game 6Apr 29SA 91@MEM 9916·27·23·25 / 24·22·24·2963%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
5 of 6
Mean probability on the winner
58.9%
Brier over the series
0.1853
A backtest, and a sample of 6. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.