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Hardwood
2012-13 season

Conference Semifinals · 2012-13

New York Knicks
New York Knicks

2

final
Indiana Pacers
Indiana Pacers

4

6 games · Indiana Pacers advanced

Every game

Game 1May 5Indiana PacersIND 102@New York KnicksNY 9522·30·29·21 / 27·19·19·3031%Game 2May 7Indiana PacersIND 79@New York KnicksNY 10520·22·24·13 / 29·18·25·3366%Game 3May 11New York KnicksNY 71@Indiana PacersIND 8215·18·20·18 / 18·18·26·2057%Game 4May 14New York KnicksNY 82@Indiana PacersIND 9316·18·22·26 / 23·25·19·2660%Game 5May 16Indiana PacersIND 75@New York KnicksNY 8515·19·23·18 / 19·21·27·1864%Game 6May 18New York KnicksNY 99@Indiana PacersIND 10627·20·34·18 / 29·26·26·2560%

Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.

What the model made of it

Games it favoured correctly

5 of 6

Mean probability on the winner

56.3%

Brier over the series

0.2048

A backtest, and a sample of 6. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.

Forecasts are scored against the closing line. Nothing here is betting advice. How it works