First Round · 2012-13
6 games · Memphis Grizzlies advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 20
MEM 91@
LAC 11221·30·18·22 / 29·28·18·3765%Game 2Apr 22MEM 91@LAC 9326·18·27·20 / 26·24·25·1868%Game 3Apr 25LAC 82@MEM 9420·19·23·20 / 23·24·23·2460%Game 4Apr 27LAC 83@MEM 10425·22·20·16 / 33·13·25·3362%Game 5Apr 30MEM 103@LAC 9326·28·19·30 / 28·20·17·2838%Game 6May 3LAC 105@MEM 11826·27·26·26 / 29·29·34·2670%
MEM 91@LAC 11221·30·18·22 / 29·28·18·3765%Game 2Apr 22MEM 91@LAC 9326·18·27·20 / 26·24·25·1868%Game 3Apr 25LAC 82@MEM 9420·19·23·20 / 23·24·23·2460%Game 4Apr 27LAC 83@MEM 10425·22·20·16 / 33·13·25·3362%Game 5Apr 30MEM 103@LAC 9326·28·19·30 / 28·20·17·2838%Game 6May 3LAC 105@MEM 11826·27·26·26 / 29·29·34·2670%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
5 of 6
Mean probability on the winner
60.3%
Brier over the series
0.1690
A backtest, and a sample of 6. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.