SA v LAL · First Round · Hardwood

First Round · 2012-13

San Antonio Spurs

4

final

Los Angeles Lakers

0

4 games · San Antonio Spurs advanced

Every game

SA 9115·22·20·22 / 24·21·25·2166%Game 2Apr 24

SA 10223·25·20·23 / 28·28·22·2469%Game 3Apr 26

LAL 8930·25·30·35 / 18·26·19·2643%Game 4Apr 28

LAL 8226·26·26·25 / 20·14·24·2449%

Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.

What the model made of it

Games it favoured correctly

2 of 4

Mean probability on the winner

56.9%

Brier over the series

0.1983

A backtest, and a sample of 4. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.