BKN v CHI · First Round · Hardwood

First Round · 2012-13

3

final

4

7 games · Chicago Bulls advanced

Every game

BKN 10614·21·27·27 / 25·35·29·1773%Game 2Apr 22

BKN 8220·27·22·21 / 17·29·11·2525%Game 3Apr 25

CHI 7917·17·18·24 / 19·22·24·1456%Game 4Apr 27

CHI 1423OT26·29·29·27 / 25·33·18·3557%Game 5Apr 29

BKN 11021·23·29·18 / 26·26·25·3368%Game 6May 2

CHI 9233·27·15·20 / 27·27·17·2143%Game 7May 4

BKN 9329·32·21·17 / 25·19·31·1828%

Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.

What the model made of it

Games it favoured correctly

4 of 7

Mean probability on the winner

49.8%

Brier over the series

0.2823

A backtest, and a sample of 7. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.