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Hardwood
2012-13 season

First Round · 2012-13

New York Knicks
New York Knicks

4

final
Boston Celtics
Boston Celtics

2

6 games · New York Knicks advanced

Every game

Game 1Apr 20Boston CelticsBOS 78@New York KnicksNY 8529·24·17·8 / 26·23·18·1881%Game 2Apr 23Boston CelticsBOS 71@New York KnicksNY 8720·28·11·12 / 26·16·32·1381%Game 3Apr 26New York KnicksNY 90@Boston CelticsBOS 7623·24·21·22 / 18·13·21·2457%Game 4Apr 28New York KnicksNY 90@Boston CelticsBOS 97OT17·18·30·19 / 22·32·14·1640%Game 5May 1Boston CelticsBOS 92@New York KnicksNY 8620·25·24·23 / 22·17·21·2619%Game 6May 3New York KnicksNY 88@Boston CelticsBOS 8024·15·28·21 / 10·17·20·3353%

Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.

What the model made of it

Games it favoured correctly

4 of 6

Mean probability on the winner

55.4%

Brier over the series

0.2470

A backtest, and a sample of 6. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.

Forecasts are scored against the closing line. Nothing here is betting advice. How it works