Skip to main content
Hardwood
2012-13 season

First Round · 2012-13

Indiana Pacers
Indiana Pacers

4

final
Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta Hawks

2

6 games · Indiana Pacers advanced

Every game

Game 1Apr 21Atlanta HawksATL 90@Indiana PacersIND 10726·24·19·21 / 34·24·26·2373%Game 2Apr 24Atlanta HawksATL 98@Indiana PacersIND 11319·31·26·22 / 25·34·29·2575%Game 3Apr 27Indiana PacersIND 69@Atlanta HawksATL 9014·16·19·20 / 27·27·21·1549%Game 4Apr 29Indiana PacersIND 91@Atlanta HawksATL 10221·19·22·29 / 22·35·12·3354%Game 5May 1Atlanta HawksATL 83@Indiana PacersIND 10622·21·24·16 / 21·29·31·2568%Game 6May 3Indiana PacersIND 81@Atlanta HawksATL 7321·16·28·16 / 20·9·21·2346%

Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.

What the model made of it

Games it favoured correctly

4 of 6

Mean probability on the winner

61.1%

Brier over the series

0.1656

A backtest, and a sample of 6. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.

Forecasts are scored against the closing line. Nothing here is betting advice. How it works