Conference Finals · 2012-13
4 games · San Antonio Spurs advanced
Every game
Game 1May 19
MEM 83@
SA 10514·23·20·26 / 31·20·22·3261%Game 2May 21MEM 89@SA 93OT13·18·33·21 / 15·31·30·966%Game 3May 25SA 104@MEM 93OT13·27·24·22 / 29·15·21·2136%Game 4May 27SA 93@MEM 8624·20·28·21 / 14·24·28·2040%
MEM 83@SA 10514·23·20·26 / 31·20·22·3261%Game 2May 21MEM 89@SA 93OT13·18·33·21 / 15·31·30·966%Game 3May 25SA 104@MEM 93OT13·27·24·22 / 29·15·21·2136%Game 4May 27SA 93@MEM 8624·20·28·21 / 14·24·28·2040%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
2 of 4
Mean probability on the winner
51.0%
Brier over the series
0.2571
A backtest, and a sample of 4. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.