Conference Semifinals · 2012-13
6 games · San Antonio Spurs advanced
Every game
Game 1May 6
GS 127@
SA 1292OT28·25·39·14 / 25·24·31·2673%Game 2May 8GS 100@SA 9128·34·21·17 / 23·20·29·1928%Game 3May 10SA 102@GS 9232·25·22·23 / 23·25·21·2336%Game 4May 12SA 87@GS 97OT26·19·17·22 / 19·18·23·2460%Game 5May 14GS 91@SA 10928·23·21·19 / 37·17·29·2669%Game 6May 16SA 94@GS 8221·26·19·28 / 19·21·19·2341%
GS 127@SA 1292OT28·25·39·14 / 25·24·31·2673%Game 2May 8GS 100@SA 9128·34·21·17 / 23·20·29·1928%Game 3May 10SA 102@GS 9232·25·22·23 / 23·25·21·2336%Game 4May 12SA 87@GS 97OT26·19·17·22 / 19·18·23·2460%Game 5May 14GS 91@SA 10928·23·21·19 / 37·17·29·2669%Game 6May 16SA 94@GS 8221·26·19·28 / 19·21·19·2341%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
3 of 6
Mean probability on the winner
51.1%
Brier over the series
0.2683
A backtest, and a sample of 6. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.