First Round · 2012-13
6 games · Golden State Warriors advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 20
GS 95@
DEN 9725·23·16·31 / 28·16·27·2680%Game 2Apr 23GS 131@DEN 11726·35·35·35 / 28·25·27·3719%Game 3Apr 26DEN 108@GS 11032·34·18·24 / 32·22·33·2355%Game 4Apr 28DEN 101@GS 11521·23·28·29 / 25·31·35·2457%Game 5Apr 30GS 100@DEN 10722·24·23·31 / 36·30·20·2172%Game 6May 2DEN 88@GS 9225·17·20·26 / 21·19·33·1959%
GS 95@DEN 9725·23·16·31 / 28·16·27·2680%Game 2Apr 23GS 131@DEN 11726·35·35·35 / 28·25·27·3719%Game 3Apr 26DEN 108@GS 11032·34·18·24 / 32·22·33·2355%Game 4Apr 28DEN 101@GS 11521·23·28·29 / 25·31·35·2457%Game 5Apr 30GS 100@DEN 10722·24·23·31 / 36·30·20·2172%Game 6May 2DEN 88@GS 9225·17·20·26 / 21·19·33·1959%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
5 of 6
Mean probability on the winner
56.9%
Brier over the series
0.2228
A backtest, and a sample of 6. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.