First Round · 2013-14
6 games · Portland Trail Blazers advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 20
POR 122@
HOU 120OT27·21·25·33 / 20·29·30·2732%Game 2Apr 23POR 112@HOU 10523·30·30·29 / 31·22·24·2832%Game 3Apr 25HOU 121@POR 116OT35·19·27·29 / 24·31·23·3233%Game 4Apr 27HOU 120@POR 123OT29·32·23·22 / 23·28·28·2765%Game 5Apr 30POR 98@HOU 10827·21·29·21 / 30·26·26·2666%Game 6May 2HOU 98@POR 9929·29·21·19 / 28·28·22·2163%
POR 122@HOU 120OT27·21·25·33 / 20·29·30·2732%Game 2Apr 23POR 112@HOU 10523·30·30·29 / 31·22·24·2832%Game 3Apr 25HOU 121@POR 116OT35·19·27·29 / 24·31·23·3233%Game 4Apr 27HOU 120@POR 123OT29·32·23·22 / 23·28·28·2765%Game 5Apr 30POR 98@HOU 10827·21·29·21 / 30·26·26·2666%Game 6May 2HOU 98@POR 9929·29·21·19 / 28·28·22·2163%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
3 of 6
Mean probability on the winner
48.5%
Brier over the series
0.2925
A backtest, and a sample of 6. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.