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Hardwood
2013-14 season

Conference Semifinals · 2013-14

Indiana Pacers
Indiana Pacers

4

final
Washington Wizards
Washington Wizards

2

6 games · Indiana Pacers advanced

Every game

Game 1May 5Washington WizardsWSH 102@Indiana PacersIND 9628·28·13·33 / 15·28·19·3449%Game 2May 7Washington WizardsWSH 82@Indiana PacersIND 8623·22·19·18 / 23·20·25·1852%Game 3May 9Indiana PacersIND 85@Washington WizardsWSH 6317·17·26·25 / 17·16·12·1829%Game 4May 11Indiana PacersIND 95@Washington WizardsWSH 9227·11·33·24 / 26·29·17·2036%Game 5May 13Washington WizardsWSH 102@Indiana PacersIND 7925·20·31·26 / 19·19·14·2737%Game 6May 15Indiana PacersIND 93@Washington WizardsWSH 8029·23·19·22 / 23·17·23·1733%

Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.

What the model made of it

Games it favoured correctly

1 of 6

Mean probability on the winner

39.1%

Brier over the series

0.3779

A backtest, and a sample of 6. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.

Forecasts are scored against the closing line. Nothing here is betting advice. How it works