First Round · 2013-14
7 games · LA Clippers advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 19
GS 109@
LAC 10524·28·35·22 / 29·23·27·2627%Game 2Apr 21GS 98@LAC 13820·21·32·25 / 31·36·38·3370%Game 3Apr 24LAC 98@GS 9624·22·29·23 / 21·22·21·3244%Game 4Apr 27LAC 97@GS 11824·24·23·26 / 39·27·23·2956%Game 5Apr 29GS 103@LAC 11321·29·22·31 / 31·24·22·3671%Game 6May 1LAC 99@GS 10025·26·16·32 / 25·23·22·3057%Game 7May 3GS 121@LAC 12632·32·20·37 / 22·34·31·3972%
GS 109@LAC 10524·28·35·22 / 29·23·27·2627%Game 2Apr 21GS 98@LAC 13820·21·32·25 / 31·36·38·3370%Game 3Apr 24LAC 98@GS 9624·22·29·23 / 21·22·21·3244%Game 4Apr 27LAC 97@GS 11824·24·23·26 / 39·27·23·2956%Game 5Apr 29GS 103@LAC 11321·29·22·31 / 31·24·22·3671%Game 6May 1LAC 99@GS 10025·26·16·32 / 25·23·22·3057%Game 7May 3GS 121@LAC 12632·32·20·37 / 22·34·31·3972%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
5 of 7
Mean probability on the winner
56.7%
Brier over the series
0.2118
A backtest, and a sample of 7. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.