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Hardwood
2013-14 season

First Round · 2013-14

Toronto Raptors
Toronto Raptors

3

final
Brooklyn Nets
Brooklyn Nets

4

7 games · Brooklyn Nets advanced

Every game

Game 1Apr 19Brooklyn NetsBKN 94@Toronto RaptorsTOR 8729·21·17·27 / 21·25·16·2527%Game 2Apr 22Brooklyn NetsBKN 95@Toronto RaptorsTOR 10019·20·27·29 / 21·24·19·3671%Game 3Apr 25Toronto RaptorsTOR 98@Brooklyn NetsBKN 10223·22·21·32 / 19·30·28·2556%Game 4Apr 27Toronto RaptorsTOR 87@Brooklyn NetsBKN 7935·16·16·20 / 22·22·23·1243%Game 5Apr 30Brooklyn NetsBKN 113@Toronto RaptorsTOR 11525·19·25·44 / 28·34·29·2472%Game 6May 2Toronto RaptorsTOR 83@Brooklyn NetsBKN 9719·22·18·24 / 34·26·19·1854%Game 7May 4Brooklyn NetsBKN 104@Toronto RaptorsTOR 10326·35·20·23 / 28·25·20·3032%

Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.

What the model made of it

Games it favoured correctly

4 of 7

Mean probability on the winner

50.4%

Brier over the series

0.2728

A backtest, and a sample of 7. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.

Forecasts are scored against the closing line. Nothing here is betting advice. How it works