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Hardwood
2013-14 season

First Round · 2013-14

Indiana Pacers
Indiana Pacers

4

final
Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta Hawks

3

7 games · Indiana Pacers advanced

Every game

Game 1Apr 19Atlanta HawksATL 101@Indiana PacersIND 9328·22·30·21 / 22·28·16·2733%Game 2Apr 22Atlanta HawksATL 85@Indiana PacersIND 10126·26·13·20 / 21·27·31·2264%Game 3Apr 24Indiana PacersIND 85@Atlanta HawksATL 9824·14·20·27 / 24·15·28·3160%Game 4Apr 26Indiana PacersIND 91@Atlanta HawksATL 8829·13·24·25 / 22·26·17·2338%Game 5Apr 28Atlanta HawksATL 107@Indiana PacersIND 9720·41·26·20 / 21·19·27·3035%Game 6May 1Indiana PacersIND 95@Atlanta HawksATL 8820·24·20·31 / 22·17·28·2137%Game 7May 3Atlanta HawksATL 80@Indiana PacersIND 9223·13·27·17 / 24·23·24·2165%

Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.

What the model made of it

Games it favoured correctly

3 of 7

Mean probability on the winner

47.3%

Brier over the series

0.2968

A backtest, and a sample of 7. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.

Forecasts are scored against the closing line. Nothing here is betting advice. How it works