Conference Semifinals · 2013-14
5 games · San Antonio Spurs advanced
Every game
Game 1May 6
POR 92@
SA 11616·23·26·27 / 29·36·25·2671%Game 2May 8POR 97@SA 11426·25·20·26 / 29·41·17·2775%Game 3May 10SA 118@POR 10328·32·23·35 / 18·22·29·3449%Game 4May 12SA 92@POR 10324·24·20·24 / 29·21·35·1847%Game 5May 14POR 82@SA 10419·25·19·19 / 19·32·26·2777%
POR 92@SA 11616·23·26·27 / 29·36·25·2671%Game 2May 8POR 97@SA 11426·25·20·26 / 29·41·17·2775%Game 3May 10SA 118@POR 10328·32·23·35 / 18·22·29·3449%Game 4May 12SA 92@POR 10324·24·20·24 / 29·21·35·1847%Game 5May 14POR 82@SA 10419·25·19·19 / 19·32·26·2777%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
3 of 5
Mean probability on the winner
63.6%
Brier over the series
0.1489
A backtest, and a sample of 5. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.