First Round · 2013-14
7 games · San Antonio Spurs advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 20
DAL 85@
SA 9012·32·21·20 / 21·22·22·2574%Game 2Apr 23DAL 113@SA 9224·32·32·25 / 23·28·24·1725%Game 3Apr 26SA 108@DAL 10934·20·20·34 / 27·32·18·3262%Game 4Apr 28SA 93@DAL 8918·32·23·20 / 23·13·29·2438%Game 5Apr 30DAL 103@SA 10926·23·22·32 / 27·31·21·3068%Game 6May 2SA 111@DAL 11326·26·29·30 / 34·24·18·3759%Game 7May 4DAL 96@SA 11923·23·22·28 / 35·33·26·2569%
DAL 85@SA 9012·32·21·20 / 21·22·22·2574%Game 2Apr 23DAL 113@SA 9224·32·32·25 / 23·28·24·1725%Game 3Apr 26SA 108@DAL 10934·20·20·34 / 27·32·18·3262%Game 4Apr 28SA 93@DAL 8918·32·23·20 / 23·13·29·2438%Game 5Apr 30DAL 103@SA 10926·23·22·32 / 27·31·21·3068%Game 6May 2SA 111@DAL 11326·26·29·30 / 34·24·18·3759%Game 7May 4DAL 96@SA 11923·23·22·28 / 35·33·26·2569%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
5 of 7
Mean probability on the winner
56.2%
Brier over the series
0.2197
A backtest, and a sample of 7. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.