First Round · 2013-14
5 games · Washington Wizards advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 20
WSH 102@
CHI 9324·24·24·30 / 22·32·21·1831%Game 2Apr 22WSH 101@CHI 99OT31·25·14·21 / 20·29·26·1634%Game 3Apr 25CHI 100@WSH 9728·20·24·28 / 30·21·18·2835%Game 4Apr 27CHI 89@WSH 9818·22·22·27 / 28·27·27·1662%Game 5Apr 29WSH 75@CHI 6923·18·20·14 / 15·26·11·1737%
WSH 102@CHI 9324·24·24·30 / 22·32·21·1831%Game 2Apr 22WSH 101@CHI 99OT31·25·14·21 / 20·29·26·1634%Game 3Apr 25CHI 100@WSH 9728·20·24·28 / 30·21·18·2835%Game 4Apr 27CHI 89@WSH 9818·22·22·27 / 28·27·27·1662%Game 5Apr 29WSH 75@CHI 6923·18·20·14 / 15·26·11·1737%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
1 of 5
Mean probability on the winner
40.0%
Brier over the series
0.3724
A backtest, and a sample of 5. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.