Conference Semifinals · 2014-15
7 games · Houston Rockets advanced
Every game
Game 1May 4
LAC 117@
HOU 10119·27·37·34 / 25·25·27·2436%Game 2May 6LAC 109@HOU 11524·41·20·24 / 35·21·27·3257%Game 3May 8HOU 99@LAC 12424·33·19·23 / 33·31·35·2572%Game 4May 10HOU 95@LAC 12833·21·25·16 / 30·30·43·2575%Game 5May 12LAC 103@HOU 12422·26·28·27 / 27·36·27·3450%Game 6May 14HOU 119@LAC 10725·37·17·40 / 29·35·28·1526%Game 7May 17LAC 100@HOU 11321·25·22·32 / 28·28·29·2860%
LAC 117@HOU 10119·27·37·34 / 25·25·27·2436%Game 2May 6LAC 109@HOU 11524·41·20·24 / 35·21·27·3257%Game 3May 8HOU 99@LAC 12424·33·19·23 / 33·31·35·2572%Game 4May 10HOU 95@LAC 12833·21·25·16 / 30·30·43·2575%Game 5May 12LAC 103@HOU 12422·26·28·27 / 27·36·27·3450%Game 6May 14HOU 119@LAC 10725·37·17·40 / 29·35·28·1526%Game 7May 17LAC 100@HOU 11321·25·22·32 / 28·28·29·2860%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
5 of 7
Mean probability on the winner
53.8%
Brier over the series
0.2412
A backtest, and a sample of 7. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.