First Round · 2014-15
5 games · Houston Rockets advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 18
DAL 108@
HOU 11819·36·22·31 / 32·27·25·3473%Game 2Apr 21DAL 99@HOU 11124·27·29·19 / 23·30·28·3075%Game 3Apr 24HOU 130@DAL 12842·23·36·29 / 36·36·27·2947%Game 4Apr 26HOU 109@DAL 12134·19·22·34 / 25·36·33·2751%Game 5Apr 28DAL 94@HOU 10322·28·25·19 / 31·25·26·2174%
DAL 108@HOU 11819·36·22·31 / 32·27·25·3473%Game 2Apr 21DAL 99@HOU 11124·27·29·19 / 23·30·28·3075%Game 3Apr 24HOU 130@DAL 12842·23·36·29 / 36·36·27·2947%Game 4Apr 26HOU 109@DAL 12134·19·22·34 / 25·36·33·2751%Game 5Apr 28DAL 94@HOU 10322·28·25·19 / 31·25·26·2174%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
4 of 5
Mean probability on the winner
64.2%
Brier over the series
0.1431
A backtest, and a sample of 5. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.