Conference Finals · 2014-15
5 games · Golden State Warriors advanced
Every game
Game 1May 19
HOU 106@
GS 11031·24·24·27 / 24·34·26·2680%Game 2May 21HOU 98@GS 9928·27·20·23 / 36·19·22·2279%Game 3May 23GS 115@HOU 8030·32·30·23 / 18·19·24·1951%Game 4May 25GS 115@HOU 12822·37·25·31 / 45·24·30·2944%Game 5May 27HOU 90@GS 10422·24·22·22 / 17·35·22·3079%
HOU 106@GS 11031·24·24·27 / 24·34·26·2680%Game 2May 21HOU 98@GS 9928·27·20·23 / 36·19·22·2279%Game 3May 23GS 115@HOU 8030·32·30·23 / 18·19·24·1951%Game 4May 25GS 115@HOU 12822·37·25·31 / 45·24·30·2944%Game 5May 27HOU 90@GS 10422·24·22·22 / 17·35·22·3079%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
4 of 5
Mean probability on the winner
66.6%
Brier over the series
0.1370
A backtest, and a sample of 5. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.