First Round · 2014-15
7 games · LA Clippers advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 19
SA 92@
LAC 10718·25·21·28 / 30·19·30·2862%Game 2Apr 22SA 111@LAC 107OT28·24·25·17 / 24·23·27·2035%Game 3Apr 24LAC 73@SA 10016·22·11·24 / 25·21·24·3069%Game 4Apr 26LAC 114@SA 10525·26·30·33 / 25·22·29·2928%Game 5Apr 28SA 111@LAC 10722·31·29·29 / 27·27·28·2538%Game 6Apr 30LAC 102@SA 9626·25·25·26 / 26·25·21·2430%Game 7May 2SA 109@LAC 11130·25·23·31 / 28·29·22·3263%
SA 92@LAC 10718·25·21·28 / 30·19·30·2862%Game 2Apr 22SA 111@LAC 107OT28·24·25·17 / 24·23·27·2035%Game 3Apr 24LAC 73@SA 10016·22·11·24 / 25·21·24·3069%Game 4Apr 26LAC 114@SA 10525·26·30·33 / 25·22·29·2928%Game 5Apr 28SA 111@LAC 10722·31·29·29 / 27·27·28·2538%Game 6Apr 30LAC 102@SA 9626·25·25·26 / 26·25·21·2430%Game 7May 2SA 109@LAC 11130·25·23·31 / 28·29·22·3263%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
3 of 7
Mean probability on the winner
46.3%
Brier over the series
0.3144
A backtest, and a sample of 7. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.