First Round · 2014-15
6 games · Chicago Bulls advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 18
MIL 91@
CHI 10329·22·24·16 / 30·30·26·1775%Game 2Apr 20MIL 82@CHI 9116·22·30·14 / 11·28·32·2076%Game 3Apr 23CHI 113@MIL 1062OT27·22·25·21 / 27·26·18·2453%Game 4Apr 25CHI 90@MIL 9223·27·21·19 / 19·31·23·1945%Game 5Apr 27MIL 94@CHI 8823·29·24·18 / 22·27·21·1823%Game 6Apr 30CHI 120@MIL 6634·31·26·29 / 16·17·19·1450%
MIL 91@CHI 10329·22·24·16 / 30·30·26·1775%Game 2Apr 20MIL 82@CHI 9116·22·30·14 / 11·28·32·2076%Game 3Apr 23CHI 113@MIL 1062OT27·22·25·21 / 27·26·18·2453%Game 4Apr 25CHI 90@MIL 9223·27·21·19 / 19·31·23·1945%Game 5Apr 27MIL 94@CHI 8823·29·24·18 / 22·27·21·1823%Game 6Apr 30CHI 120@MIL 6634·31·26·29 / 16·17·19·1450%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
4 of 6
Mean probability on the winner
53.7%
Brier over the series
0.2474
A backtest, and a sample of 6. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.