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Hardwood
2014-15 season

Conference Semifinals · 2014-15

Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta Hawks

4

final
Washington Wizards
Washington Wizards

2

6 games · Atlanta Hawks advanced

Every game

Game 1May 3Washington WizardsWSH 104@Atlanta HawksATL 9826·27·28·23 / 37·26·20·1535%Game 2May 5Washington WizardsWSH 90@Atlanta HawksATL 10620·26·29·15 / 28·25·27·2665%Game 3May 9Atlanta HawksATL 101@Washington WizardsWSH 10318·25·23·35 / 28·28·29·1858%Game 4May 11Atlanta HawksATL 106@Washington WizardsWSH 10129·36·20·21 / 26·29·20·2640%Game 5May 13Washington WizardsWSH 81@Atlanta HawksATL 8219·28·15·19 / 23·18·22·1970%Game 6May 15Atlanta HawksATL 94@Washington WizardsWSH 9119·26·27·22 / 20·19·25·2744%

Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.

What the model made of it

Games it favoured correctly

3 of 6

Mean probability on the winner

52.0%

Brier over the series

0.2475

A backtest, and a sample of 6. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.

Forecasts are scored against the closing line. Nothing here is betting advice. How it works