First Round · 2014-15
5 games · Memphis Grizzlies advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 19
POR 86@
MEM 10015·24·23·24 / 25·33·28·1465%Game 2Apr 22POR 82@MEM 9721·18·21·22 / 19·31·23·2468%Game 3Apr 25MEM 115@POR 10924·38·23·30 / 19·30·26·3445%Game 4Apr 27MEM 92@POR 9922·26·27·17 / 27·28·13·3152%Game 5Apr 29POR 93@MEM 9920·19·27·27 / 20·26·22·3171%
POR 86@MEM 10015·24·23·24 / 25·33·28·1465%Game 2Apr 22POR 82@MEM 9721·18·21·22 / 19·31·23·2468%Game 3Apr 25MEM 115@POR 10924·38·23·30 / 19·30·26·3445%Game 4Apr 27MEM 92@POR 9922·26·27·17 / 27·28·13·3152%Game 5Apr 29POR 93@MEM 9920·19·27·27 / 20·26·22·3171%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
4 of 5
Mean probability on the winner
60.4%
Brier over the series
0.1665
A backtest, and a sample of 5. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.