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Hardwood
2014-15 season

First Round · 2014-15

Toronto Raptors
Toronto Raptors

0

final
Washington Wizards
Washington Wizards

4

4 games · Washington Wizards advanced

Every game

Game 1Apr 18Washington WizardsWSH 93@Toronto RaptorsTOR 86OT19·27·19·17 / 23·19·14·2632%Game 2Apr 21Washington WizardsWSH 117@Toronto RaptorsTOR 10626·34·37·20 / 31·18·26·3135%Game 3Apr 24Toronto RaptorsTOR 99@Washington WizardsWSH 10635·13·22·29 / 33·21·18·3465%Game 4Apr 26Toronto RaptorsTOR 94@Washington WizardsWSH 12522·28·20·24 / 36·30·36·2367%

Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.

What the model made of it

Games it favoured correctly

2 of 4

Mean probability on the winner

49.7%

Brier over the series

0.2796

A backtest, and a sample of 4. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.

Forecasts are scored against the closing line. Nothing here is betting advice. How it works