Conference Semifinals · 2014-15
6 games · Golden State Warriors advanced
Every game
Game 1May 3
MEM 86@
GS 10125·27·14·20 / 32·29·22·1883%Game 2May 5MEM 97@GS 9028·22·23·24 / 22·17·24·2716%Game 3May 9GS 89@MEM 9920·19·25·25 / 23·32·24·2047%Game 4May 11GS 101@MEM 8428·33·21·19 / 20·24·20·2049%Game 5May 13MEM 78@GS 9825·16·16·21 / 26·23·25·2479%Game 6May 15GS 108@MEM 9532·26·18·32 / 19·30·19·2755%
MEM 86@GS 10125·27·14·20 / 32·29·22·1883%Game 2May 5MEM 97@GS 9028·22·23·24 / 22·17·24·2716%Game 3May 9GS 89@MEM 9920·19·25·25 / 23·32·24·2047%Game 4May 11GS 101@MEM 8428·33·21·19 / 20·24·20·2049%Game 5May 13MEM 78@GS 9825·16·16·21 / 26·23·25·2479%Game 6May 15GS 108@MEM 9532·26·18·32 / 19·30·19·2755%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
3 of 6
Mean probability on the winner
55.0%
Brier over the series
0.2521
A backtest, and a sample of 6. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.