First Round · 2014-15
4 games · Cleveland Cavaliers advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 19
BOS 100@
CLE 11331·23·22·24 / 27·35·29·2270%Game 2Apr 21BOS 91@CLE 9926·24·18·23 / 25·26·24·2472%Game 3Apr 23CLE 103@BOS 9531·25·28·19 / 25·23·28·1946%Game 4Apr 26CLE 101@BOS 9329·28·13·31 / 19·17·25·3249%
BOS 100@CLE 11331·23·22·24 / 27·35·29·2270%Game 2Apr 21BOS 91@CLE 9926·24·18·23 / 25·26·24·2472%Game 3Apr 23CLE 103@BOS 9531·25·28·19 / 25·23·28·1946%Game 4Apr 26CLE 101@BOS 9329·28·13·31 / 19·17·25·3249%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
2 of 4
Mean probability on the winner
59.5%
Brier over the series
0.1781
A backtest, and a sample of 4. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.