First Round · 2014-15
4 games · Golden State Warriors advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 18
NO 99@
GS 10613·28·25·33 / 28·31·25·2286%Game 2Apr 20NO 87@GS 9728·24·19·16 / 17·38·16·2686%Game 3Apr 23GS 123@NO 119OT25·27·17·39 / 26·37·26·1964%Game 4Apr 25GS 109@NO 9831·36·21·21 / 24·30·13·3165%
NO 99@GS 10613·28·25·33 / 28·31·25·2286%Game 2Apr 20NO 87@GS 9728·24·19·16 / 17·38·16·2686%Game 3Apr 23GS 123@NO 119OT25·27·17·39 / 26·37·26·1964%Game 4Apr 25GS 109@NO 9831·36·21·21 / 24·30·13·3165%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
4 of 4
Mean probability on the winner
75.3%
Brier over the series
0.0720
A backtest, and a sample of 4. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.