NBA Finals · 2014-15
6 games · Golden State Warriors advanced
Every game
Game 1Jun 4
CLE 100@
GS 108OT29·22·22·25 / 19·29·25·2574%Game 2Jun 7CLE 95@GS 93OT20·27·15·25 / 20·25·14·2825%Game 3Jun 9GS 91@CLE 9620·17·18·36 / 24·20·28·2455%Game 4Jun 11GS 103@CLE 8231·23·22·27 / 24·18·28·1242%Game 5Jun 14CLE 91@GS 10422·28·17·24 / 22·29·22·3176%Game 6Jun 16GS 105@CLE 9728·17·28·32 / 15·28·18·3649%
CLE 100@GS 108OT29·22·22·25 / 19·29·25·2574%Game 2Jun 7CLE 95@GS 93OT20·27·15·25 / 20·25·14·2825%Game 3Jun 9GS 91@CLE 9620·17·18·36 / 24·20·28·2455%Game 4Jun 11GS 103@CLE 8231·23·22·27 / 24·18·28·1242%Game 5Jun 14CLE 91@GS 10422·28·17·24 / 22·29·22·3176%Game 6Jun 16GS 105@CLE 9728·17·28·32 / 15·28·18·3649%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
3 of 6
Mean probability on the winner
53.5%
Brier over the series
0.2485
A backtest, and a sample of 6. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.