First Round · 2015-16
5 games · Golden State Warriors advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 16
HOU 78@
GS 10415·18·27·18 / 33·27·22·2286%Game 2Apr 18HOU 106@GS 11530·28·21·27 / 33·33·20·2987%Game 3Apr 21GS 96@HOU 9718·30·24·24 / 31·24·23·1935%Game 4Apr 24GS 121@HOU 9429·27·41·24 / 29·27·20·1863%Game 5Apr 27HOU 81@GS 11420·17·22·22 / 37·22·30·2588%
HOU 78@GS 10415·18·27·18 / 33·27·22·2286%Game 2Apr 18HOU 106@GS 11530·28·21·27 / 33·33·20·2987%Game 3Apr 21GS 96@HOU 9718·30·24·24 / 31·24·23·1935%Game 4Apr 24GS 121@HOU 9429·27·41·24 / 29·27·20·1863%Game 5Apr 27HOU 81@GS 11420·17·22·22 / 37·22·30·2588%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
4 of 5
Mean probability on the winner
71.8%
Brier over the series
0.1215
A backtest, and a sample of 5. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.