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Hardwood
2015-16 season

First Round · 2015-16

Toronto Raptors
Toronto Raptors

4

final
Indiana Pacers
Indiana Pacers

3

7 games · Toronto Raptors advanced

Every game

Game 1Apr 16Indiana PacersIND 100@Toronto RaptorsTOR 9019·24·27·30 / 24·21·22·2326%Game 2Apr 18Indiana PacersIND 87@Toronto RaptorsTOR 9816·32·18·21 / 27·26·21·2470%Game 3Apr 21Toronto RaptorsTOR 101@Indiana PacersIND 8524·29·18·30 / 17·19·23·2647%Game 4Apr 23Toronto RaptorsTOR 83@Indiana PacersIND 10016·26·16·25 / 28·29·16·2750%Game 5Apr 26Indiana PacersIND 99@Toronto RaptorsTOR 10235·26·29·9 / 20·32·25·2571%Game 6Apr 29Toronto RaptorsTOR 83@Indiana PacersIND 10122·22·20·19 / 20·20·31·3053%Game 7May 1Indiana PacersIND 84@Toronto RaptorsTOR 8923·21·20·20 / 28·22·28·1168%

Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.

What the model made of it

Games it favoured correctly

4 of 7

Mean probability on the winner

55.1%

Brier over the series

0.2246

A backtest, and a sample of 7. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.

Forecasts are scored against the closing line. Nothing here is betting advice. How it works