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Hardwood
2015-16 season

First Round · 2015-16

LA Clippers
LA Clippers

2

final
Portland Trail Blazers
Portland Trail Blazers

4

6 games · Portland Trail Blazers advanced

Every game

Game 1Apr 17Portland Trail BlazersPOR 95@LA ClippersLAC 11521·21·24·29 / 26·24·31·3469%Game 2Apr 20Portland Trail BlazersPOR 81@LA ClippersLAC 10217·26·18·20 / 22·25·20·3572%Game 3Apr 23LA ClippersLAC 88@Portland Trail BlazersPOR 9619·21·27·21 / 22·27·21·2651%Game 4Apr 25LA ClippersLAC 84@Portland Trail BlazersPOR 9820·23·21·20 / 24·23·19·3254%Game 5Apr 27Portland Trail BlazersPOR 108@LA ClippersLAC 9818·27·26·37 / 18·32·21·2731%Game 6Apr 29LA ClippersLAC 103@Portland Trail BlazersPOR 10624·24·34·21 / 24·26·30·2661%

Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.

What the model made of it

Games it favoured correctly

5 of 6

Mean probability on the winner

56.6%

Brier over the series

0.2068

A backtest, and a sample of 6. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.

Forecasts are scored against the closing line. Nothing here is betting advice. How it works