First Round · 2015-16
6 games · Atlanta Hawks advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 16
BOS 101@
ATL 10219·15·31·36 / 30·21·21·3067%Game 2Apr 19BOS 72@ATL 897·21·18·26 / 24·19·18·2868%Game 3Apr 22ATL 103@BOS 11120·25·33·25 / 37·20·22·3256%Game 4Apr 24ATL 95@BOS 104OT21·27·25·19 / 24·22·24·2259%Game 5Apr 26BOS 83@ATL 11020·19·23·21 / 15·32·42·2165%Game 6Apr 28ATL 104@BOS 9220·21·39·24 / 17·16·26·3344%
BOS 101@ATL 10219·15·31·36 / 30·21·21·3067%Game 2Apr 19BOS 72@ATL 897·21·18·26 / 24·19·18·2868%Game 3Apr 22ATL 103@BOS 11120·25·33·25 / 37·20·22·3256%Game 4Apr 24ATL 95@BOS 104OT21·27·25·19 / 24·22·24·2259%Game 5Apr 26BOS 83@ATL 11020·19·23·21 / 15·32·42·2165%Game 6Apr 28ATL 104@BOS 9220·21·39·24 / 17·16·26·3344%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
5 of 6
Mean probability on the winner
59.7%
Brier over the series
0.1691
A backtest, and a sample of 6. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.