Conference Semifinals · 2015-16
4 games · Cleveland Cavaliers advanced
Every game
Game 1May 2
ATL 93@
CLE 10419·22·29·23 / 30·21·23·3070%Game 2May 4ATL 98@CLE 12320·18·32·28 / 35·39·32·1771%Game 3May 6CLE 121@ATL 10831·24·30·36 / 28·35·28·1746%Game 4May 8CLE 100@ATL 9927·29·25·19 / 36·22·19·2250%
ATL 93@CLE 10419·22·29·23 / 30·21·23·3070%Game 2May 4ATL 98@CLE 12320·18·32·28 / 35·39·32·1771%Game 3May 6CLE 121@ATL 10831·24·30·36 / 28·35·28·1746%Game 4May 8CLE 100@ATL 9927·29·25·19 / 36·22·19·2250%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
2 of 4
Mean probability on the winner
59.3%
Brier over the series
0.1783
A backtest, and a sample of 4. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.