Conference Semifinals · 2015-16
5 games · Golden State Warriors advanced
Every game
Game 1May 1
POR 106@
GS 11817·34·22·33 / 37·28·28·2586%Game 2May 3POR 99@GS 11034·25·28·12 / 21·30·25·3486%Game 3May 7GS 108@POR 12028·18·34·28 / 22·36·35·2738%Game 4May 9GS 132@POR 125OT18·39·29·25 / 26·41·18·2657%Game 5May 11POR 121@GS 12530·33·28·30 / 27·31·35·3284%
POR 106@GS 11817·34·22·33 / 37·28·28·2586%Game 2May 3POR 99@GS 11034·25·28·12 / 21·30·25·3486%Game 3May 7GS 108@POR 12028·18·34·28 / 22·36·35·2738%Game 4May 9GS 132@POR 125OT18·39·29·25 / 26·41·18·2657%Game 5May 11POR 121@GS 12530·33·28·30 / 27·31·35·3284%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
4 of 5
Mean probability on the winner
70.2%
Brier over the series
0.1272
A backtest, and a sample of 5. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.