First Round · 2015-16
4 games · San Antonio Spurs advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 17
MEM 74@
SA 10613·24·14·23 / 22·26·33·2590%Game 2Apr 19MEM 68@SA 9411·24·18·15 / 22·27·21·2491%Game 3Apr 22SA 96@MEM 8726·18·26·26 / 18·25·28·1677%Game 4Apr 24SA 116@MEM 9525·22·37·32 / 19·26·21·2978%
MEM 74@SA 10613·24·14·23 / 22·26·33·2590%Game 2Apr 19MEM 68@SA 9411·24·18·15 / 22·27·21·2491%Game 3Apr 22SA 96@MEM 8726·18·26·26 / 18·25·28·1677%Game 4Apr 24SA 116@MEM 9525·22·37·32 / 19·26·21·2978%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
4 of 4
Mean probability on the winner
84.1%
Brier over the series
0.0297
A backtest, and a sample of 4. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.