Conference Finals · 2015-16
6 games · Cleveland Cavaliers advanced
Every game
Game 1May 17
TOR 84@
CLE 11528·16·23·17 / 33·33·29·2077%Game 2May 19TOR 89@CLE 10828·20·21·20 / 30·32·24·2278%Game 3May 21CLE 84@TOR 9924·23·23·14 / 27·33·20·1946%Game 4May 23CLE 99@TOR 10524·17·28·30 / 27·30·21·2751%Game 5May 25TOR 78@CLE 11619·15·26·18 / 37·28·35·1673%Game 6May 27CLE 113@TOR 8731·24·31·27 / 25·16·33·1351%
TOR 84@CLE 11528·16·23·17 / 33·33·29·2077%Game 2May 19TOR 89@CLE 10828·20·21·20 / 30·32·24·2278%Game 3May 21CLE 84@TOR 9924·23·23·14 / 27·33·20·1946%Game 4May 23CLE 99@TOR 10524·17·28·30 / 27·30·21·2751%Game 5May 25TOR 78@CLE 11619·15·26·18 / 37·28·35·1673%Game 6May 27CLE 113@TOR 8731·24·31·27 / 25·16·33·1351%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
5 of 6
Mean probability on the winner
62.7%
Brier over the series
0.1576
A backtest, and a sample of 6. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.