First Round · 2015-16
4 games · Cleveland Cavaliers advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 17
DET 101@
CLE 10625·33·20·23 / 27·26·23·3077%Game 2Apr 20DET 90@CLE 10728·25·15·22 / 23·32·27·2577%Game 3Apr 22CLE 101@DET 9124·30·25·22 / 27·26·20·1856%Game 4Apr 24CLE 100@DET 9825·28·28·19 / 28·24·26·2057%
DET 101@CLE 10625·33·20·23 / 27·26·23·3077%Game 2Apr 20DET 90@CLE 10728·25·15·22 / 23·32·27·2577%Game 3Apr 22CLE 101@DET 9124·30·25·22 / 27·26·20·1856%Game 4Apr 24CLE 100@DET 9825·28·28·19 / 28·24·26·2057%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
4 of 4
Mean probability on the winner
66.7%
Brier over the series
0.1211
A backtest, and a sample of 4. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.